Quantum computing has long been touted as a game-changing force, with headlines warning that it could one day crack all existing encryption and upend the foundation of modern cybersecurity. But how much of that is hype, and how much is reality?
As someone fortunate enough to attend internal GCHQ-led events in the UK and engage with leading scientists and specialists in the field, I wanted to break down where quantum computing actually stands today and what it truly means for cybersecurity.
What Is Quantum Computing?
In simple terms, traditional computers use binary bits, which are either 0 or 1. Quantum computers, on the other hand, use qubits, which can exist in a superposition of both 0 and 1 at the same time. This, along with a quantum phenomenon known as entanglement, allows quantum systems to process vastly more data at exponentially greater speeds.
The result? Theoretical computing power that dwarfs anything we have today. The concern is that such machines could eventually break even the most robust encryption protocols used to secure modern digital communications leading to a global security risks.
But There Are Major Drawbacks...
Despite the hype, quantum computing isn’t quite ready to overthrow the digital world. There are significant barriers:
- Quantum systems must operate just above absolute zero due to their sensitivity to noise. Even minor thermal energy can disrupt qubit interactions.
- These systems are expensive to build and maintain, likely running into the billions.
These two blockers means that only a handful of major players like Google, Amazon, and probably China currently possess meaningful quantum capabilities.
Progress is Developing Faster Than Expected
Unlike nuclear fusion, which always seems two decades away, quantum computing is progressing faster than many anticipated. Major firms in finance and technology, including Toshiba and Fujitsu, are actively investing in quantum initiatives. There have even been successful tests of quantum communication over traditional fibre optic cables, however these are still affected by the same noise issue.
Some theorists even suggest that quantum systems could tap into computing power from alternate dimensions, depending on your interpretation of quantum mechanics. Regardless of the theory, it’s clear that quantum technology is powerful and evolving quickly.
The good news? Experts are already working on post-quantum cryptography – encryption methods designed to withstand quantum attacks. There’s optimism that these new methods will be sufficient to protect digital systems, at least for the foreseeable future.
Are We Close to a Real Threat?
Realistically, we're likely decades away from quantum computing becoming a threat to cybersecurity. Even then, it would be limited to major nation-states and large organizations. The U.S. NSA, for example, recently advised against rushing to implement quantum-safe encryption, citing budgetary constraints and a low current threat level.
That said, it remains a critical area of research and investment. While we don’t need to panic, we should certainly keep an eye on developments and be proactive in building future-proof systems.
Final Thoughts
Quantum computing is undoubtedly fascinating and holds incredible potential, but it’s not an immediate danger to our cybersecurity infrastructure. With ongoing advancements in post-quantum cryptography and a measured, strategic approach, we can stay ahead of the curve.
For now, quantum disruption remains a matter of when rather than if — but that "when" is likely still a long way off.
Thanks for reading!
If you have any questions, or want to talk about this further please don't hesitate to reach out to me directly - terry@roboshadow.com
I’m lucky to have worked in technology all over the world for large multi-national organisations, in recent years I have built technology brands and developed products to help make technology that bit easier for people to grasp and manage. By day I run tech businesses, by night (as soon as the kids have gone to bed) I write code and I love building Cyber Security technology.
